In the complex tapestry of African geopolitics, Ethiopia’s recent actions raise serious questions about its commitment to the principles of the African Union (AU). As the host country of the AU headquarters, Ethiopia is expected to champion the organization’s ideals, yet recent developments cast a shadow over its adherence to these principles.
A particularly contentious issue is the potential Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Somalia and the president of the Somali region in Jigjiga, paving the way for the region to become part of the Greater Somalia vision. The question arises: how would Ethiopian authorities react to such a move?
Abiy Ahmed’s decision to enter into an agreement with Somali regional president is a direct violation of Article 4 of the African Union, which upholds the sovereignty and territorial integrity of member states. This move not only challenges the unity of the Ethiopian state but also puts Ethiopia at odds with the very principles that the AU seeks to uphold.
Abiy Ahmed’s track record is marked by a lack of political achievements, exacerbated by conflicts with various ethnic groups within Ethiopia, including the Amhara, Oromo, and Tigray. Moreover, Ethiopia’s relations with neighboring countries have soured, leaving a trail of diplomatic disengagement. Now, as the drums of war beat louder in the Horn of Africa, Abiy Ahmed openly speaks of securing Ethiopia’s greatness by forcibly obtaining a seaport.
This bellicose rhetoric is rooted in a dangerous misconception – the idea that a war can be won on the battlefield and that military victories can seamlessly translate into political solutions. The reality, however, is far more complex, with the potential for dire consequences that extend beyond Ethiopia’s borders.
Despite international community support, it seems inevitable that Somalia must prepare for a new war to defend its territorial integrity and sovereignty.
In the coming days, the Horn of Africa will be closely watching the unfolding dynamics between Ethiopia and its neighbors. As tensions escalate, the challenge lies in finding diplomatic solutions to avert further conflict and upholding the principles that the African Union was built upon. Ethiopia, as the host country, must reconcile its actions with the values it is expected to champion, or risk becoming a catalyst for destabilization in a region already grappling with complex geopolitical challenges.
Author: Mohamed Muse, Somali federal election commisioner
