OP-ED: Fourteen years have passed since Somalia embarked on its federal path — a long and complicated journey aimed at rebuilding a nation fragmented by decades of conflict. Yet, in a moment that feels eerily familiar, the country once again stands at a crossroads. With recent developments, one cannot help but ask: Are we back to square one with a transitional government?
The sentiment has echoed in political discourse and on the streets alike. In theory, the current situation mirrors the early days of the federal government experiment fragile alliances, deep political rifts, and mounting pressure from the international community. Despite the time that has passed, Somalia appears to be revisiting some of the same foundational challenges it faced more than a decade ago.
This well known became even more pronounced during the Kampala meeting held on April 24, 2025. In the presence of the Somali President, Troop Contributing Countries (TCCs) and key international donors delivered what can only be described as a stern and sobering message. Their tone was unmistakably serious — a two-month ultimatum has been handed to the Somali government to resolve its internal political differences. If these disputes remain unresolved, they warned, an international “roadmap” may be imposed to guide the country’s political future.
Such language is not only strong; it’s symbolic. The reference to a road-map a term heavily used during previous transitional periods signals a potential rollback in national sovereignty over key decisions. It brings to mind the era of externally-driven blueprints for governance, where Somalia was often more of a subject than a participant in its own political process.
For many observers, the ultimatum reflects deep frustration from international partners over the prolonged political deadlock in Somalia. With AMISOM reconfigured into ATMIS and the transition of security responsibilities underway, the hope was for more unified and stable governance to emerge. Instead, unresolved electoral disputes, federal-state tensions, and a lack of cohesive national vision continue to undermine progress.
Now, with the clock ticking, the Somali leadership faces a stark choice: come together to resolve political fractures or risk losing the reins of their own road-map. While the international community has long been a supporter of Somalia’s reconstruction, its patience appears to be wearing thin.
The question remains, will Somalia seize this moment to reaffirm its commitment to the federal project and national unity, or will history repeat itself, pushing the nation back toward transitional oversight? Only time and the next two months will tell.
The Author: Mohamed Musse, Former Somali Federal Election Commissioner
