The Horn of Africa is undergoing a major shift in its power dynamics, with Ethiopia at the center of this upheaval. Once considered the regional heavyweight, Ethiopia is facing increasing isolation due to the emerging power alliance between Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea, formed during a summit in Asmara this month, which has rattled Addis Ababa, raising concerns about the future of Ethiopia’s diplomatic standing, security, and regional ambitions, and sending a clear message: Ethiopia, long a dominant force in the region, must now contend with a formidable coalition that seems determined to curb its influence.
Ethiopia’s Growing Isolation: A Self-Inflicted Crisis?
For years, Ethiopia has played a central role in regional security, particularly by supporting Somalia in its fight against al-Shabab militants. However, recent decisions by Addis Ababa have alienated its neighbors, pushing them into each other’s arms in a way that now threatens to marginalize Ethiopia. This isn’t just diplomatic squabbling – It’s a calculated response to Ethiopia’s increasingly aggressive regional posturing.
A prime example of Ethiopia’s miscalculated ambitions is its recent preliminary agreement with Somaliland to lease part of its coastline, despite Somalia’s vehement objections. Somalia, which sees Somaliland as an integral part of its territory, was infuriated by what it perceived as a violation of its sovereignty. Ethiopia’s dismissiveness of Somalia’s concerns has come at a high cost – driving Somalia into the arms of Egypt and Eritrea, two nations with their own longstanding grievances against Addis Ababa.
What Ethiopia seems to have underestimated is Somalia’s growing diplomatic and military leverage. No longer content to be seen as a fragile, war-torn state, Somalia is rising to claim its place as a regional powerbroker. By aligning with Egypt and Eritrea, Somalia is sending a bold message: it will not be ignored or disrespected, especially by a neighbor that has overstepped its bounds.
Somalia’s Strategic Preeminence
Somalia’s strategic hinge toward Egypt and Eritrea has been nothing less than a geopolitical maneuver. For years, Somalia relied on Ethiopia as a critical ally in its fight against al-Shabab, but Ethiopia’s perceived betrayal over the Somaliland issue has forced Mogadishu to rethink its alliances. And in Egypt and Eritrea, Somalia has found powerful partners eager to counterbalance Ethiopia’s dominance.
Somalia’s military agreement with Egypt, signed in August 2024, is a clear signal that Mogadishu is no longer playing second fiddle to Addis Ababa. The deal, which included significant shipments of arms and equipment to support Somalia’s fight against terrorism, represents a new chapter in the Horn of Africa’s power struggle. Egypt’s growing military support for Somalia not only strengthens Mogadishu’s hand but also sends a clear warning to Ethiopia: Somalia is no longer dependent on you, and Egypt is more than willing to step in.
While framed as a cooperative effort for regional stability, this alliance is undeniably provocative. Egypt, already embroiled in a dispute with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), sees in Somalia a strategic partner for exerting pressure on Addis Ababa. Eritrea, with its own lingering tensions with Ethiopia, is also keen to support an alliance that challenges Ethiopia’s ambitions.
Eritrea’s Calculated Maneuver: From Ally to Adversary?
Eritrea’s role in this emerging bloc complicates Ethiopia’s situation further. Once a close ally, especially during the Tigray conflict, Eritrea now feels increasingly estranged from Addis Ababa. The peace agreement that ended the civil war left Eritrea sidelined, particularly in the context of peace talks with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki has not forgotten this exclusion, as his leadership in hosting the Asmara summit with Egypt’s Abdul Fattah al-Sisi and Somalia’s Hassan Sheikh Mohamud signals a readiness to pivot away from Ethiopia.
Ethiopia’s aspirations for access to a Red Sea port – another thorn in Eritrea’s side have only deepened the divide. Eritrea’s strategic position along the Red Sea makes it a critical player in the regional maritime affairs, and Ethiopia’s landlocked status has long been a point of contention. Afwerki’s cold response to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s overtures for port access indicates a deepening divide, with Eritrea seemingly poised to limit Ethiopia’s aspirations.
Somalia’s Maritime Defense Pact with Turkey
Somalia’s decision to deepening its military relationship with Turkey was not just about preserving territorial integrity – it was a bold geopolitical maneuver aimed at thwarting Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions. Turkey’s presence in Somalia’s territorial waters directly counters Ethiopia’s deal with Somaliland and ensures that any future moves by Addis Ababa toward securing a Red Sea port will face formidable opposition.
The maritime defense pact signed in February 2024 between Somalia and Turkey came at a critical time when Ethiopia’s ambitions were under scrutiny. The 10-year agreement allows Turkey to become a key player in safeguarding Somalia’s maritime borders, bolstering its naval capabilities, and defending against piracy, smuggling, and foreign intervention, exclusively from Ethiopia. This deal was undoubtedly a geopolitical masterstroke by Somalia, and it places Turkey in a prime position to exert influence over the region’s maritime resources.
With Turkey already holding a substantial military presence in Somalia since establishing its largest overseas military base in Mogadishu in 2017, this agreement solidifies Turkey’s influence in the region. Under its terms, Turkey is committed to training and equipping the Somali navy with advanced weaponry. This expanding military footprint emphasizes Turkey’s commitment to safeguarding Somali interests, effectively shutting Ethiopia out from potential access to the Red Sea and inflicting a serious setback to Addis Ababa’s aspirations.
Additionally, Turkey’s expanded military presence includes full access to Somalia’s airspace, further strengthening its strategic position. This comprehensive agreement underlines Turkey’s long-term commitment to securing its influence in the East Africa region, and it’s a stark caveat to Ethiopia, whose maritime ambitions are increasingly constrained by both Somalia and Turkey.
A Geopolitical Fallout?
As Turkeye walks a fine line – It does not want to completely alienate Ethiopia while still committing to Somalia’s defense leaving Addis Ababa with few diplomatic options.
The possibility of Ethiopia challenging Turkey’s role in Somalia is slim. Turkey’s robust military presence, coupled with its economic agreements, means that any Ethiopian attempt to interfere in Somali waters would risk direct confrontation with Ankara – a scenario Ethiopia is unlikely to risk, given its already strained military and economic resources.
Furthermore, Ethiopia’s reliance on Turkish drones during its civil war in Tigray adds another layer of complexity to this evolving relationship. While Turkey has been a crucial military supplier to Ethiopia, its inclination toward Somalia could see Ethiopia seeking alternative military alliances – potentially drawing in other global powers into the Horn of Africa’s already volatile dynamics.
Kenya: The Emerging U.S. Ally in the Region
Amid this geopolitical chess game in the Horn of Africa, Kenya has emerged as another key player, having recently been designated a major non-NATO ally (MNNA) by the United States. This designation enhances Kenya’s growing importance as a strategic partner for the West underscoring a significant shift in the region’s power balance. The MNNA status, though not as binding as NATO membership, provides Kenya with a range of strategic advantages, including enhanced defense cooperation, access to advanced military technology, and priority delivery of military aid and equipment. This status cements Kenya as a critical partner of the U.S. in a region where counterterrorism, maritime security, and regional stability are top priorities for Western powers.
More importantly, the U.S. sees Kenya as a bulwark and a counterbalance to Chinese expansion in Africa, particularly in the realm of infrastructure development. China’s investment in Africa, especially in infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has raised concerns among U.S. policymakers. In response, the U.S. has sought to strengthen its ties with countries like Kenya, which is strategically important in East Africa due to its political stability, economic potential, and geographic location.
What Does This Mean for Ethiopia?
Ethiopia, previously the preeminent power in the Horn of Africa, is now confronting a rising competitor that enjoys the backing of major global powers. This shift not only signifies a loss of regional influence for Ethiopia but also suggests a changing perception among international stakeholders. The West, once a supporter of Ethiopia in maintaining stability in East Africa, may increasingly see Kenya as the more capable and reliable partner.
As Ethiopia’s influence wanes, it may face diminished international aid and partnerships, thus weakening its position in regional security and diplomatic efforts.
Ethiopia: A Nation at a Crossroads
What’s truly remarkable about this emerging alliance is how swiftly Ethiopia’s regional dominance is eroding. For years, Ethiopia was the linchpin of regional security efforts, especially in Somalia, where its military presence was seen as essential in the fight against extremism. But now, as Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia forge closer ties, Ethiopia finds itself increasingly sidelined, and its once-unshakable influence is crumbling.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which once symbolized rising Ethiopian power, has become a flashpoint for regional tensions. Egypt, which sees the dam as a threat to its water security, shows no sign of backing down, especially, with Somalia by its side, which strengthens Cairo’s negotiating position against Ethiopia’s goals – particularly its desire for access to a Red Sea port and dominance over the Nile’s waters – are not just driven by national pride; they are essential for its very survival. However, as time passes, Ethiopia is losing the regional allies that could help realize these ambitions.
What Lies Ahead: Can Ethiopia Reverse Its Decline?
Ethiopia stands at a critical juncture, with its longstanding alliances crumbling and its assertive regional policies provoking a strong backlash. Continuing down this path of isolation could lead to further marginalization in a landscape where its influence once seemed unshakeable.
To reclaim its position, Ethiopia must urgently reassess its approach. Adopting a more conciliatory stance towards Somalia, including renegotiating the agreement over Somaliland, could help restore essential trust. Mending relations with Eritrea – once a close ally – might also be crucial for securing desired access to the Red Sea. And perhaps most critically, Ethiopia needs to address Egypt’s concerns over the GERD to avoid escalating confrontations regarding the Nile’s waters.
But time is running out. The coalition of Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia is solidifying, and Ethiopia’s opportunities for diplomatic maneuvering are narrowing. What lies ahead is more than just a political challenge for Ethiopia; it’s a question of survival. The power dynamics in the Horn of Africa are shifting rapidly, and unless Ethiopia successfully recalibrates its strategy, it risks being left behind in a region it once dominated.
Read the original article on Hortabin.com
Author: Abdishakur Ali
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Shabelle Media Network’s editorial Policy.
