MOGADISHU, July 4 – Somalia’s State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Ali Balcad, has strongly rejected a new report by the International Crisis Group warning that Al-Shabaab has regained territory in 2025.
In a post on X, Balcad said Somalia is often portrayed in international policy and research circles as a failed state unable to secure itself, rebuild institutions, or govern effectively.
“This is an incomplete and unfair picture,” he said.
He added that the federal government, led by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has in the past four years simultaneously pursued three major national priorities: the fight against Al-Shabaab, rebuilding national security forces, and advancing constitutional review aimed at strengthening state-building and preparing for elections.
“It is difficult to succeed in even one of these tasks in a country emerging from conflict. Somalia is attempting all three at once while still in active war and with declining international financial support,” he said.
The International Crisis Group report warned that internal political tensions and reduced international assistance have increased pressure on Somalia’s government, raising questions over its capacity to withstand future security challenges.
It said Al-Shabaab had made significant military gains in 2025, retaking much of the territory seized by government forces during offensives in 2022–2023 in central Somalia.
The report added that Somali security forces have consolidated positions around Mogadishu, but large parts of central regions remain under the group’s control, creating a protracted stalemate in the conflict.
ICG also noted that Al-Shabaab has adjusted its governance approach in areas under its control, seeking to improve relations with local communities and reduce overt coercion, a shift it said has helped the group strengthen its influence.
The think tank urged Somalia to reform military training, improve recruitment and retention of soldiers, and deepen coordination with federal member states in counterinsurgency planning.
It also called for strengthening state-level forces to hold recaptured territory and said non-military measures, including increased humanitarian assistance in Al-Shabaab-held areas, could form part of a longer-term solution.
The report concluded that a political settlement remains the best path to ending Somalia’s long-running conflict, urging continued exploration of dialogue options while noting the war remains in a stalemate marked by alternating government advances and militant counterattacks.
